The global passenger EV market, including plug-in and conventional hybrids, should easily reach 25 million units this year.

In combined battery capacity deployed – a better indicator of battery materials demand than unit sales alone – the electric car market has expanded by a robust 34% so far this year. According to data from Toronto-based EV supply chain research firm Adamas Intelligence, 2025 is shaping up to be the first calendar year battery capacity deployment tops 1 TWh. 

The wildcard to reach this milestone is the US, where the provisions of the tax bill are making the way through Congress, slashing EV subsidies could significantly alter growth in the world’s second largest EV market.

The raw material bill for the contained lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt and manganese in the batteries of EV sold during the first four months of year climbed to over $4 billion, even as prices for lithium hydroxide and carbonate continue to set new lows.

Chinese LCE prices averaged below $10,000 per tonne in April for the first time since January 2021 while lithium hydroxide, destined for nickeliferous EV batteries, is trading below $9,000 per tonne, down by double digits this year.  

The languishing lithium market saw the value of nickel exceed that of lithium on a monthly basis for the first time in February. The value of lithium deployed from January through April totalled $1.71 billion while the EV battery nickel tally was $1.73 billion. 

Nickel sulphate entering the EV battery supply chain in China is up 8% year to date, averaging $3,770 per tonne in April. Battery nickel values surpassing lithium also comes despite the accelerating adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries, particularly by Chinese automakers. 

The cathode chemistry represented 58% of the combined battery capacity of EVs made in China and sold worldwide last year. In the US that number is just 5% and in Europe 10%, but should rise as LFP plants  come on line in both Europe and the US through the end of the decade.  

Keeping in mind that the installed tonnage does not take into account any losses during processing, chemical conversion or battery production scrap (often well into double digit percentages), so required tonnes and revenues are meaningfully higher at the mine mouth.

The rapid electrification of the global car parc year to date coincides with a swing back towards full electric vehicles (BEVs), which have inherently larger  batteries and therefore contained metal than plug-ins (PHEVs) and conventional hybrids (HEVs). 

The latest data tracking sales, battery capacity and chemistry in over 120 countries paired with monthly prices show the weighted average monthly dollar value of the lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite contained in the batteries​​ of the average EV has reversed course. 

Despite weakness in natural and synthetic graphite, lithium and manganese, nickel’s rise and the surge in cobalt prices saw the total battery metals bill move higher for the first time this year, hitting $506 in March, the latest month where detailed data is available. 

The greater share of BEVs in the sales mix saw even lithium loadings move slightly higher despite the fall in price. The value of contained lithium in the average EV battery now sits at $209 versus $207 for nickel. 

The revival in the cobalt market, courtesy of the DRC’s export resulted in a 58% month on month increase in average cobalt values. The more than $60 worth of cobalt in the average EV battery in newly-sold EVs in March was the highest since December 2023. 

Manganese sulphate prices have been on a downtrend since August and coupled with changing cathode chemistries now average just $7 per EV battery.  Contained graphite, the anode material used in virtually all electric vehicles, and its value have held mostly steady at just under $23 per average EV.

At just over $500, the battery metals bill is still well below the same month in 2024 and nowhere near the monthly peak of more than $1,900 at the beginning of 2023 when lithium prices were riding high.